FYI, I think Shut It Down is approximately as likely to happen as “Full-fledged Plan A that is sufficiently careful enough to actually help much more than [the first several stages of Plan A that Plan A and Shut It Down share]”, on account of being simple enough that it’s even really possible to coordinate on it.
I agree they are both pretty unlikely to happen. (Regardless, I think the thing to do is probably “reach for whatever wins seem achievable near term and try to build coordination capital for more wins”)
I think it’s a major possible failure mode of Plan A is “it turns it a giant regulatory capture molochian boondoggle that both slows thing down for a long time in confused bad ways and reads to the public as a somewhat weirdly cynical plot, which makes people turn against tech progress comparably or more than the average Shut It Down would.” (I don’t have a strong belief about the relative likelihoods of that
None of those beliefs are particularly strong and I could easily learn a lot that would change all my beliefs.
Seems fine to leave it here. I dont have more arguments I didn’t already write up in “Shut It Down” is simpler than “Controlled Takeoff”, just stating for the record I don’t think you’ve put forth an argument that justifies the 3x increase in difficulty of Shut It Down over the fully fledged version of Plan A. (We might still be imagining different things re: Shut It Down)
Nod.
FYI, I think Shut It Down is approximately as likely to happen as “Full-fledged Plan A that is sufficiently careful enough to actually help much more than [the first several stages of Plan A that Plan A and Shut It Down share]”, on account of being simple enough that it’s even really possible to coordinate on it.
I agree they are both pretty unlikely to happen. (Regardless, I think the thing to do is probably “reach for whatever wins seem achievable near term and try to build coordination capital for more wins”)
I think it’s a major possible failure mode of Plan A is “it turns it a giant regulatory capture molochian boondoggle that both slows thing down for a long time in confused bad ways and reads to the public as a somewhat weirdly cynical plot, which makes people turn against tech progress comparably or more than the average Shut It Down would.” (I don’t have a strong belief about the relative likelihoods of that
None of those beliefs are particularly strong and I could easily learn a lot that would change all my beliefs.
Seems fine to leave it here. I dont have more arguments I didn’t already write up in “Shut It Down” is simpler than “Controlled Takeoff”, just stating for the record I don’t think you’ve put forth an argument that justifies the 3x increase in difficulty of Shut It Down over the fully fledged version of Plan A. (We might still be imagining different things re: Shut It Down)