Do you have a take on ‘all things considered p(doom) / p(bad outcome)’ by plan? My guess is the EV from moving to plan A doesn’t look great on pure takeover risk but looks better on the all things considered risk.
In terms of how likely each regime is to happen, I feel like Plan C is modal, not Plan D and Plan B is already similarly likely to Plan D. My A / B / C / D / E is probably 5 / 25 / 35 / 30 / 5. Main reasons is that I don’t see current lab leaders actually wanting to do D, seems like they probably all will want to do C to me when the time comes, enough so to probably just do it even if there’s a chance of losing race.
In terms of all things considered p(doom) my A / B / C / D / E is probably 12 / 35 / 40 / 70 / 85.
So key takes that i feel are: - Plan B doesn’t feel that much better than Plan C to me. - Plan C is probably already the default. - A lot of people are working on increasing Plan B mass which it seems not high EV to me. - Most tractable highest EV things to work on IMO seem like increasing Plan A mass, and reducing plan C p(doom).
Do you have a take on ‘all things considered p(doom) / p(bad outcome)’ by plan? My guess is the EV from moving to plan A doesn’t look great on pure takeover risk but looks better on the all things considered risk.
In terms of how likely each regime is to happen, I feel like Plan C is modal, not Plan D and Plan B is already similarly likely to Plan D. My A / B / C / D / E is probably 5 / 25 / 35 / 30 / 5. Main reasons is that I don’t see current lab leaders actually wanting to do D, seems like they probably all will want to do C to me when the time comes, enough so to probably just do it even if there’s a chance of losing race.
In terms of all things considered p(doom) my A / B / C / D / E is probably 12 / 35 / 40 / 70 / 85.
So key takes that i feel are:
- Plan B doesn’t feel that much better than Plan C to me.
- Plan C is probably already the default.
- A lot of people are working on increasing Plan B mass which it seems not high EV to me.
- Most tractable highest EV things to work on IMO seem like increasing Plan A mass, and reducing plan C p(doom).