I’ve come back to register here that i’ve updated much closer to your views on likelihood but i’m (seemingly) more pessimistic on doom (unless your all things considered p(doom) is a bunch higher than takeover risk).
These numbers imply overall p(doom) around 55%
My all considered doom is a decent amount high but this depends on what you count as doom.
I’ve come back to register here that i’ve updated much closer to your views on likelihood but i’m (seemingly) more pessimistic on doom (unless your all things considered p(doom) is a bunch higher than takeover risk).
These numbers imply overall p(doom) around 55%
My all considered doom is a decent amount high but this depends on what you count as doom.