that are the most politically challenging part AFAICT, and once the world is even remotely considering those steps, the somewhat different shut-it-down steps don’t seem particularly hard sells.
Seems good to register disagreement, but, fyi I have no idea why you think that.
Re:
“these [geopolitical situation getting worse] don’t even seem strictly worse in Shutdown World vs Controlled Takeoff world”:
One way the geopolitical situation might get worse is “time passes, and, all kinds of stuff can change when time passes.”
Another way it can get worse is “the current dynamics still involve a feeling of being rushed, and time pressure, and meanwhile the international agreements we have leave a lot more wiggle room and more confused spirit-of-the-law about how people are allowed to maneuever.” This could cause the geopolitical situation to get worse faster than it would otherwise.
Which of those is worse? idk, I’m not a geopolitical expert. But, it’s why it seems pretty obviously not ‘strictly worse’ (which is a high bar, with IMO a higher burden of proof) under Shut It Down.
(Also, note “shut it all down” is not like it’s actually going to be permanent. Any international treaty/agreement at any time can be reversed by the involved nations deciding “guys, actually we have now voted to to leave this agreement”, with some associated negotiations along the way)
I dunno, this seems really important and I am really confused why y’all are oriented this way.
Yes, I very much would like responses on these and my other comment, although no worries if you want to take a bit more time to address more thoroughly.
Responding to some disagree reacts:
Seems good to register disagreement, but, fyi I have no idea why you think that.
Re:
One way the geopolitical situation might get worse is “time passes, and, all kinds of stuff can change when time passes.”
Another way it can get worse is “the current dynamics still involve a feeling of being rushed, and time pressure, and meanwhile the international agreements we have leave a lot more wiggle room and more confused spirit-of-the-law about how people are allowed to maneuever.” This could cause the geopolitical situation to get worse faster than it would otherwise.
Which of those is worse? idk, I’m not a geopolitical expert. But, it’s why it seems pretty obviously not ‘strictly worse’ (which is a high bar, with IMO a higher burden of proof) under Shut It Down.
(Also, note “shut it all down” is not like it’s actually going to be permanent. Any international treaty/agreement at any time can be reversed by the involved nations deciding “guys, actually we have now voted to to leave this agreement”, with some associated negotiations along the way)
I’m going to default to bowing out, but if you want to bid for me to engage a bunch, you can.
I dunno, this seems really important and I am really confused why y’all are oriented this way.
Yes, I very much would like responses on these and my other comment, although no worries if you want to take a bit more time to address more thoroughly.