Thus, the numbers I give below are somewhat more optimistic than what you’d get just given the level of political will corresponding to each of these scenarios (as this will might be spent incompetently).
FWIW, for at least plan A and plan B, I feel like the realistic multiplier on how optimistic these are is like at least 3x? Like, I don’t see an argument for this kind of plan working with 90%+ probability given realistic assumptions about execution quality.
(I also have disagreements about whether this will work, but at least plan A well-executed seems like it would notice it was starting to be very reckless and then be in a good position to slow down more)
FWIW, for at least plan A and plan B, I feel like the realistic multiplier on how optimistic these are is like at least 3x? Like, I don’t see an argument for this kind of plan working with 90%+ probability given realistic assumptions about execution quality.
(I also have disagreements about whether this will work, but at least plan A well-executed seems like it would notice it was starting to be very reckless and then be in a good position to slow down more)
Yeah fair, I don’t think I’ve thought about this very carefully. I currently feel like 3x is too high, but I don’t feel very reflectively stable.