If that study’s seropositivity rate generalises to the whole of Tokyo then there have been ~4,300,000 actual cases.
Japan’s positivity rate on testing during the second peak got up to 6% so it is unlikely they are missing that many cases.
The numbers are so far apart that I wouldn’t really believe that the seropositivity rate generalises at all.
(Note that Tokyo has 400 confirmed deaths and 25,000 cases giving CFR = 1.6%. Assuming some missed cases this puts the IFR in the normal range.)
Looking at it in a bit more detail the seroprevalence increased before Tokyo started seeing increases in positive tests so I really don’t think these numbers will pan out in the long run.
EDIT: actually 25k is Tokyo prefecture and 4.3M refers to Tokyo city—Tokyo prefecture at 46.8% would be 6.5M.
I suspect that those results don’t generalise to the whole population.
Japan’s testing shows 25,000 cases in Tokyo.
If that study’s seropositivity rate generalises to the whole of Tokyo then there have been ~4,300,000 actual cases.
Japan’s positivity rate on testing during the second peak got up to 6% so it is unlikely they are missing that many cases.
The numbers are so far apart that I wouldn’t really believe that the seropositivity rate generalises at all.
(Note that Tokyo has 400 confirmed deaths and 25,000 cases giving CFR = 1.6%. Assuming some missed cases this puts the IFR in the normal range.)
Looking at it in a bit more detail the seroprevalence increased before Tokyo started seeing increases in positive tests so I really don’t think these numbers will pan out in the long run.
EDIT: actually 25k is Tokyo prefecture and 4.3M refers to Tokyo city—Tokyo prefecture at 46.8% would be 6.5M.