There’s a lot to respond to here, and I’m too lazy to get into a detailed discussion on so many points.
Instead, would you like to make a bet on any of these claims?
The 2017 average Tesla stock price will not be less than 75% of the average 2016 stock price. (We could make this bet for Q1 2017 if you are certain enough in the time frame you suggest.)
SpaceX will not file for bankruptcy in 2017. (SpaceX isn’t traded publicly, so we can’t bet on stock price.)
If you think the Mars ambitions are just hype, we could bet on the launch of a Red Dragon Mars mission by 2018 or 2020, or of some specific planned test actually occurring in 2017. (Tank pressurization tests, Raptor engine tests, etc.)
Also, does anyone know of a safe and legal way to bet Bitcoin or USD online? Ideally, a sort of bet-and-forget system like a prediction market, so that I don’t have to remember a bet for 4 years. Ideally, the system would have a third party automatically determine the victor, and return their own bet and the bet of the other person to them.
I, for one, suspect they will land a Dragon on Mars in the 2020 window (and that downmass in one could be great for more and cheaper scientific payloads going forward from there) and will probably get their Falcon rockets ironed out in the next year or three. Probably manage some first stage reuse in that timeframe too. But I also think the grand Mars plans are waaaaaay overhyped and unrealistic, especially at the usually advertised timeline.
There’s a lot to respond to here, and I’m too lazy to get into a detailed discussion on so many points.
Instead, would you like to make a bet on any of these claims?
The 2017 average Tesla stock price will not be less than 75% of the average 2016 stock price. (We could make this bet for Q1 2017 if you are certain enough in the time frame you suggest.)
SpaceX will not file for bankruptcy in 2017. (SpaceX isn’t traded publicly, so we can’t bet on stock price.)
If you think the Mars ambitions are just hype, we could bet on the launch of a Red Dragon Mars mission by 2018 or 2020, or of some specific planned test actually occurring in 2017. (Tank pressurization tests, Raptor engine tests, etc.)
Also, does anyone know of a safe and legal way to bet Bitcoin or USD online? Ideally, a sort of bet-and-forget system like a prediction market, so that I don’t have to remember a bet for 4 years. Ideally, the system would have a third party automatically determine the victor, and return their own bet and the bet of the other person to them.
I, for one, suspect they will land a Dragon on Mars in the 2020 window (and that downmass in one could be great for more and cheaper scientific payloads going forward from there) and will probably get their Falcon rockets ironed out in the next year or three. Probably manage some first stage reuse in that timeframe too. But I also think the grand Mars plans are waaaaaay overhyped and unrealistic, especially at the usually advertised timeline.
Agree, and would like to add that I don’t believe that Hyperloop will be economically viable and safe in current form with large vacuum tubes.