For the “Will Russia use chemical or biological weapons in 2022?” question, the creator provided information about an ambiguous outcome, though it seems very subjective:
If, when the question closes, there is widespread reporting that Russia did the attacks and there is not much reported doubt, then I will resolve YES. If it seems ambiguous I will either resolve as N/A or at a percentage that I think is reasonable. (Eg. resolve at 33% if I think there’s a 2⁄3 chance that the attacks were false flag attacks.) This of course would also go the other way if there are supposed Ukrainian attacks that are widely believed to be caused by Russia.
EDITED: Ah, you are correct and I am wrong, the text you posted is present, it’s just down in the comments section rather than under the question itself. That does make this question less bad, though it’s still a bit weird that the question had to wait for someone to ask the creator that (and, again, the ambiguity remains).
I’ll update the doc with links to reduce confusion—did not do that originally out of a mix of not wanting to point too aggressively at people who wrote those questions and feeling lazy.
For the “Will Russia use chemical or biological weapons in 2022?” question, the creator provided information about an ambiguous outcome, though it seems very subjective:
I think there are several similar such markets—the one I was looking at was at https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi-e790d5158f6a and lacks such a comment.
EDITED: Ah, you are correct and I am wrong, the text you posted is present, it’s just down in the comments section rather than under the question itself. That does make this question less bad, though it’s still a bit weird that the question had to wait for someone to ask the creator that (and, again, the ambiguity remains).
I’ll update the doc with links to reduce confusion—did not do that originally out of a mix of not wanting to point too aggressively at people who wrote those questions and feeling lazy.