I’m not sure I’d say that in the context of this post, but more generally, models are really useful. Predictions that come with useful models are a lot more useful than raw predictions. I wrote this other post about a similar topic.
For this specific post, I think what we’re trying to get is the best prediction we could have had using data pre-event.
So you don’t want predictions*, you want models**.
Robust/fully fleshed out models.
*predictions of events
**predictions of which model is correct
I’m not sure I’d say that in the context of this post, but more generally, models are really useful. Predictions that come with useful models are a lot more useful than raw predictions. I wrote this other post about a similar topic.
For this specific post, I think what we’re trying to get is the best prediction we could have had using data pre-event.