How do we do this without falling into the Crab Bucket problem AKA Heckler’s Veto, which is definitely a thing that exists and is exacerbated by these concerns in EA-land? “Don’t do risky things” equivocates into “don’t do things”.
Some things are best avoided entirely when you take their risks into account, some become worthwhile only if you manage their risks instead of denying their existence even to yourself. But even when denying risks gives positive outcomes in expectation, adequately managing those risks is even better. Unless society harms the project for acknowledging some risks, which it occasionally does. In which case managing them without acknowledgement (which might require magic cognitive powers) is in tension with acknowledging them despite the expected damage from doing so.
How do we do this without falling into the Crab Bucket problem AKA Heckler’s Veto, which is definitely a thing that exists and is exacerbated by these concerns in EA-land? “Don’t do risky things” equivocates into “don’t do things”.
Some things are best avoided entirely when you take their risks into account, some become worthwhile only if you manage their risks instead of denying their existence even to yourself. But even when denying risks gives positive outcomes in expectation, adequately managing those risks is even better. Unless society harms the project for acknowledging some risks, which it occasionally does. In which case managing them without acknowledgement (which might require magic cognitive powers) is in tension with acknowledging them despite the expected damage from doing so.
Maybe the person hired needs to have good scores on a prediction market such that people trust them to be well calibrated.