Yes, this was an example I considered, too, but it does not seem to highlight the problem with under-sampling of the low-sibling families as much.
A side note. In the real world, on average, one HAS less children than his parents. Parents can’t have zero children, a child can.
In the real world, on average, one HAS less children than his parents. Parents can’t have zero children, a child can.
Both are true, but the former doesn’t follow from the latter. In particular, I suspect the former was false a few decades ago.
Indeed, this self-selection is the reason that the SIA Doomsday is a bad prediction.
Yes, this was an example I considered, too, but it does not seem to highlight the problem with under-sampling of the low-sibling families as much.
A side note. In the real world, on average, one HAS less children than his parents. Parents can’t have zero children, a child can.
Both are true, but the former doesn’t follow from the latter. In particular, I suspect the former was false a few decades ago.
Indeed, this self-selection is the reason that the SIA Doomsday is a bad prediction.