Suppose in 2025, the median prediction is that it’ll happen in 2027. Suppose in 2028, the median prediction is that it’ll happen in 2030.
Will that be enough empirical evidence, for you to conclude that the crowd is repeatedly predicting short timelines which never materialize?
Anecdote: in 2022, my recollection is that Ethereum had been planning to switch to proof of stake for years, and that project had been repeatedly delayed. In June, my brother bet me that it wouldn’t happen for at least another two years. It actually happened in September 2022.
Anecdote: in 2022, my recollection is that Ethereum had been planning to switch to proof of stake for years, and that project had been repeatedly delayed. In June, my brother bet me that it wouldn’t happen for at least another two years. It actually happened in September 2022.