My best guess, though I am far from confident, is that things will mostly get continuously more crunch-like from here, as things continue to accelerate
I think on one hand, things will totally get more crunchlike as time goes on, but also, I think “working hard now” is more leveraged than “working hard later” because now is when the world is generally waking up and orienting, the longer you wait the more entrenched powers-that-be will be dominating the space and controlling the narrative.
I actually was planning to write a post that was sort-of-the-complement of Val’s, i.e. “Consider ‘acting as if short timelines’ for the next year or so, then re-evaluate” (I don’t think you need to wait till 2028 to see how prescient the 2027 models are looking)
I’m not sure what to think in terms of “how much to chill out” which is probably a wrong question. I think if there was a realistic option to “work harder and burn out more afterwards” this year, I would, but I sort of tried that and then immediately burned out more than seemed useful even as a shortterm tradeoff.
Not quite responding t your main point, but:
I think on one hand, things will totally get more crunchlike as time goes on, but also, I think “working hard now” is more leveraged than “working hard later” because now is when the world is generally waking up and orienting, the longer you wait the more entrenched powers-that-be will be dominating the space and controlling the narrative.
I actually was planning to write a post that was sort-of-the-complement of Val’s, i.e. “Consider ‘acting as if short timelines’ for the next year or so, then re-evaluate” (I don’t think you need to wait till 2028 to see how prescient the 2027 models are looking)
I’m not sure what to think in terms of “how much to chill out” which is probably a wrong question. I think if there was a realistic option to “work harder and burn out more afterwards” this year, I would, but I sort of tried that and then immediately burned out more than seemed useful even as a shortterm tradeoff.