Random things I learnt about ASML after wondering how critical they were to GPU progress.
ASML makes specialized photolithography machines. They’re about a decade ahead of competitors i.e. without ASML machines, you’d be stuck making 10nm chips.
They use 13.5nm “Extreme UV” to make 3nm scale features by using reflective optics to make interference patterns and fringe. Using low res light to make higher res features has been going on since photolithography tech stalled at 28nm for a while. I am convinced this is wizardry.
RE specialization: early photolithography community used to have co-development between companies, technical papers sharing tonnes of details, and little specialization in companies. Person I talked to says they don’t know if this has stopped, but it feels like it has.
In hindsight, no-one in the optics lab at my uni talked about chip manufacturing: it was all quantum dots and lasers. So maybe
It’s unclear how you can decrease wavelength and still use existing technology. Perhaps we’ve got 5 generations left.
We might have to change to deep UV light then.
Even when we reach the limits of shr
ASML makes machines for photolithography, somehow using light with λ > chip feature size. If ASML went out of business, everyone wouldn’t be doomed. Existing machines are made for particular gens, but can be used for “half-steps”. Like from 5nm to 4nm. Everyone is building new fabs, and ASML is building new machines as fast as they can.
Would prob trigger world recession if they stopped producing new things.
Very common in tech for monopoly partners to let customer’s get access to their tech if they go out of business.
TSMC and Intel buys from ASML. Don’t seem to be trying to screw people over. If they tried, then someone else would come in. Apple might be able to in like 10 or even twenty years. China has tried hard to do this. ASML have edges in some fabs, other companies have edges in different parts of the fab. Some companies just started specializing more in the sorts of machines they had in the fabs. Cannon and Nikon make other photolithography machines in fabs, but specialize in different sorts for different purposes. ASML’s are used in bottom most layers, used for transistors. Other companies focus on higher layers, with “registration requirements being less strict”. Might still be in the decade range. If you didn’t have ASML tech, you’d need to fall back to 10nm tech. Just TSMC at 3nm in production. Everyone behind them, Intel Samsung, are also ASML customers. Friend’s company is made using TSMC. They give masks, and get chips made. Do you just naturally get monopolies in this industry? Used to have tonnes of info sharing. Technical papers were shared tonnes. Making things got harder, and people said it was too important not to share. Worried about China using these things, for kind of spurious reasons (they can already make ICBMS to ruin everyone’s day) Used to be co-developing between companies. Don’t know why that stopped. Or even if it really has, it just feels like it has stopped. Very little discussion of chip manufacturing in hindsight. Extreme UV is like 12nm light (much shorter than prior ~100nm), won’t go through glass lenses. Try to use reflective optics as much as possible. At microprocessors report, Intel was saying they’d make their own machines to do this and would show others how to. They would do this to show they’d maintain their technical edge. They said they’d get it done by 2010, and they were saying this in like 1995?. Ended up taking twice as long. Only started getting it in 7nm. Don’t know how much we’re relying on ASML vs Intel tech. Hoping to get EUV working, but took longer, and was hard to use w/o EUV. Intel said it would be ready at 28nm, and it wasn’t, so they had to use lower resolution light to somehow pull it off. Somehow using fringes diffraction to get higher res. What are upcoming technologies in the photolithography stuff? Not sure how much more you can decrease wavelength and still use existing technology. Maybe 5 generations past where we are without changing anything. And then might have to change to deep UV. They’re using 13.5nm light. Process tech can improve in different ways. 1nm, when introduced, will have low yield. After 10 years, essentially all chips will be made correctly. Standard experience curve stuff applies. Eking out all the economic performance of chip making techniques will take like 20 years after you get to the limits of shrinking dies This would translate directly into continuous improvements in PC’s, AIs and that sort of thing.
Lots of hardware optimization has happened, and this is partly a software thing i.e. you make hardware more optimized for some software, and improve the software on chips. Which muddies the algorithm vs hardware split you get.
Random things I learnt about ASML after wondering how critical they were to GPU progress.
ASML makes specialized photolithography machines. They’re about a decade ahead of competitors i.e. without ASML machines, you’d be stuck making 10nm chips.
They use 13.5nm “Extreme UV” to make 3nm scale features by using reflective optics to make interference patterns and fringe. Using low res light to make higher res features has been going on since photolithography tech stalled at 28nm for a while. I am convinced this is wizardry.
RE specialization: early photolithography community used to have co-development between companies, technical papers sharing tonnes of details, and little specialization in companies. Person I talked to says they don’t know if this has stopped, but it feels like it has.
In hindsight, no-one in the optics lab at my uni talked about chip manufacturing: it was all quantum dots and lasers. So maybe
It’s unclear how you can decrease wavelength and still use existing technology. Perhaps we’ve got 5 generations left.
We might have to change to deep UV light then.
Even when we reach the limits of shr
ASML makes machines for photolithography, somehow using light with λ > chip feature size. If ASML went out of business, everyone wouldn’t be doomed. Existing machines are made for particular gens, but can be used for “half-steps”. Like from 5nm to 4nm. Everyone is building new fabs, and ASML is building new machines as fast as they can.
Would prob trigger world recession if they stopped producing new things.
Very common in tech for monopoly partners to let customer’s get access to their tech if they go out of business.
TSMC and Intel buys from ASML.
Don’t seem to be trying to screw people over.
If they tried, then someone else would come in. Apple might be able to in like 10 or even twenty years.
China has tried hard to do this.
ASML have edges in some fabs, other companies have edges in different parts of the fab.
Some companies just started specializing more in the sorts of machines they had in the fabs.
Cannon and Nikon make other photolithography machines in fabs, but specialize in different sorts for different purposes.
ASML’s are used in bottom most layers, used for transistors. Other companies focus on higher layers, with “registration requirements being less strict”.
Might still be in the decade range.
If you didn’t have ASML tech, you’d need to fall back to 10nm tech.
Just TSMC at 3nm in production.
Everyone behind them, Intel Samsung, are also ASML customers.
Friend’s company is made using TSMC. They give masks, and get chips made.
Do you just naturally get monopolies in this industry?
Used to have tonnes of info sharing. Technical papers were shared tonnes.
Making things got harder, and people said it was too important not to share.
Worried about China using these things, for kind of spurious reasons (they can already make ICBMS to ruin everyone’s day)
Used to be co-developing between companies.
Don’t know why that stopped. Or even if it really has, it just feels like it has stopped.
Very little discussion of chip manufacturing in hindsight.
Extreme UV is like 12nm light (much shorter than prior ~100nm), won’t go through glass lenses. Try to use reflective optics as much as possible.
At microprocessors report, Intel was saying they’d make their own machines to do this and would show others how to.
They would do this to show they’d maintain their technical edge.
They said they’d get it done by 2010, and they were saying this in like 1995?.
Ended up taking twice as long. Only started getting it in 7nm.
Don’t know how much we’re relying on ASML vs Intel tech.
Hoping to get EUV working, but took longer, and was hard to use w/o EUV. Intel said it would be ready at 28nm, and it wasn’t, so they had to use lower resolution light to somehow pull it off.
Somehow using fringes diffraction to get higher res.
What are upcoming technologies in the photolithography stuff?
Not sure how much more you can decrease wavelength and still use existing technology.
Maybe 5 generations past where we are without changing anything.
And then might have to change to deep UV.
They’re using 13.5nm light.
Process tech can improve in different ways.
1nm, when introduced, will have low yield. After 10 years, essentially all chips will be made correctly.
Standard experience curve stuff applies.
Eking out all the economic performance of chip making techniques will take like 20 years after you get to the limits of shrinking dies
This would translate directly into continuous improvements in PC’s, AIs and that sort of thing.
Lots of hardware optimization has happened, and this is partly a software thing i.e. you make hardware more optimized for some software, and improve the software on chips. Which muddies the algorithm vs hardware split you get.
SemiAnalysis has a report (partly paywalled) here about a potential competitor to ASML.
Seems like this competitor is just fraud, as reported here: I Think Substrate is Fraudulent: Part 1