I built a preliminary model here: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/108YuOmrf18nQTOQksV30vch6HNPivvX3?authuser=2
It’s definitely too simple to treat as strong evidence, but it shows some interesting dynamics. For example, levels of alignment rise at first, then rapidly falling when AI deception skills exceed human oversight capacity. I sent it to Tyler and he agreed — cool, but not actual evidence.
If anyone wants to work on improving this, feel free to reach out!