kept their analysis secret, because sharing it would have allowed others to partially close the arbitrage opportunity
This claim seems incomplete. If I have secret knowledge of an inaccurate price, my motivation is to keep that secret… for as much as a few hours, if that’s how much is required for me to decide on, place, and verify trades which take advantage of that price. Once I’ve made my trades, I would prefer that the price adjusts to a more accurate value as soon as possible so that I can cash out and re-diversify my portfolio. Unless my secret knowledge was some illegal insider thing, I’d be shouting it to the rooftops as soon as I could.
This applies in triple if the trades I’m making are something like a leveraged short sale, like you’d probably want to do for a bubble. The longer people are unaware of the bubble, the more danger it has of growing to the point where I lose my shirt before it pops.
Once I’ve made my trades, I would prefer that the price adjusts to a more accurate value as soon as possible … I’d be shouting it to the rooftops
That might be illegal, and even if not would people listen? You’re talking about taking a position and then loudly announcing that other people should make trades such that you make money.
This claim seems incomplete. If I have secret knowledge of an inaccurate price, my motivation is to keep that secret… for as much as a few hours, if that’s how much is required for me to decide on, place, and verify trades which take advantage of that price. Once I’ve made my trades, I would prefer that the price adjusts to a more accurate value as soon as possible so that I can cash out and re-diversify my portfolio. Unless my secret knowledge was some illegal insider thing, I’d be shouting it to the rooftops as soon as I could.
This applies in triple if the trades I’m making are something like a leveraged short sale, like you’d probably want to do for a bubble. The longer people are unaware of the bubble, the more danger it has of growing to the point where I lose my shirt before it pops.
That might be illegal, and even if not would people listen? You’re talking about taking a position and then loudly announcing that other people should make trades such that you make money.