And that is something I definitely disagree with. I don’t think the estimate is anywhere near that robust.
Is this MIRI official position? Because, AFAIK that estimate was never retracted.
Anyway, the problem doesn’t seem to be much with the exact numbers, but with the process: what she did was essentially a travesty of a Fermi estimate, where she pulled numbers of out thin air and multiplied them together to get a self-serving result.
This person is “Executive Director and Cofounder” of CFAR. Is this what they teach for $1,000 a day? How to fool yourself by performing a mental ritual with made up numbers?
Is this MIRI official position? Because, AFAIK that estimate was never retracted.
I don’t know what Anna’s current view is. (Edit: Anna has now given it.)
In general, there aren’t such things as “MIRI official positions,” there are just individual persons’ opinions at a given time. Asking for MIRI’s official position on a research question is like asking for CSAIL’s official opinion on AGI timelines. If there are “MIRI official positions,” I guess they’d be board-approved policies like our whistleblower policy or something.
Is this MIRI official position? Because, AFAIK that estimate was never retracted.
Anyway, the problem doesn’t seem to be much with the exact numbers, but with the process: what she did was essentially a travesty of a Fermi estimate, where she pulled numbers of out thin air and multiplied them together to get a self-serving result.
This person is “Executive Director and Cofounder” of CFAR. Is this what they teach for $1,000 a day? How to fool yourself by performing a mental ritual with made up numbers?
I don’t know what Anna’s current view is. (Edit: Anna has now given it.)
In general, there aren’t such things as “MIRI official positions,” there are just individual persons’ opinions at a given time. Asking for MIRI’s official position on a research question is like asking for CSAIL’s official opinion on AGI timelines. If there are “MIRI official positions,” I guess they’d be board-approved policies like our whistleblower policy or something.
Thanks for the answer