In my experience, smart people have many original theories. They likely hold these theories because they know they are smarter than most people, and so don’t see any reason to trust common knowledge. Also, holding original and complex theories make them seem more intelligent. Most original theories are of course incorrect, even when they come from smart people. Intelligent, charismatic people are very good at convincing themselves and others they are correct.
IMO, this is one of the main reasons those, smart, competent people in charge screw up so often. They don’t do it because they aren’t smart or competent, they do it because they have a bias in favor of their own ideas and theories, just like everyone else.
I’d say the smarter you think you are, the more likely you are to think you’re the exception. I’d say that saying that IQ positively correlates with overconfidence is a much stronger claim than saying that the overconfidence effect exists.
Eliezer,
In my experience, smart people have many original theories. They likely hold these theories because they know they are smarter than most people, and so don’t see any reason to trust common knowledge. Also, holding original and complex theories make them seem more intelligent. Most original theories are of course incorrect, even when they come from smart people. Intelligent, charismatic people are very good at convincing themselves and others they are correct.
IMO, this is one of the main reasons those, smart, competent people in charge screw up so often. They don’t do it because they aren’t smart or competent, they do it because they have a bias in favor of their own ideas and theories, just like everyone else.
The smarter you are, the more likely you are to think you’re the exception, and neglect the outside view.
That curve got to bend at some point—if you’re very very very smart you should realize this and adjust for it.
I’d say the smarter you think you are, the more likely you are to think you’re the exception. I’d say that saying that IQ positively correlates with overconfidence is a much stronger claim than saying that the overconfidence effect exists.
The other problem is that when they dismiss other people, they dismiss their observations, not just their theories.
This is brilliant.
I couldn’t of said it better myself.