I mean, I agree that if you want to entertain this as one remote possibility, sure, go ahead, I am not saying morality could not turn out to be weird. But clearly you can construct arguments of similar quality for at least hundreds if not thousands or tens of thousands distinct conclusions.
If you currently want to argue that this is true, and a reasonable assumption on which to make your purchase decisions, I would contend that yes, you are also very very confused about how ethics works.
Like, you can have a mutual state of knowledge about the uncertainty and the correct way to process that uncertainty. There are many plausible arguments for why random.org will spit out a specific number if you ask it for a random number, but it is also obvious that you are supposed to have uncertainty about what number it outputs. If someone shows up and claims to be confident that random.org will spit out a specific number next, they are obviously wrong, even if there was actually a non-trivial chance the number they were confident in will be picked.
The top-level post calculates an estimate in-expectation. If you calculate something in-expectation you are integrating your uncertainty. If you estimate that a randomly publicy traded company is worth 10x its ticker price, you might not be definitely wrong, but it is clear that you need to have a good argument, and if you do not have one, then you are obviously wrong.
I mean, I agree that if you want to entertain this as one remote possibility, sure, go ahead, I am not saying morality could not turn out to be weird. But clearly you can construct arguments of similar quality for at least hundreds if not thousands or tens of thousands distinct conclusions.
If you currently want to argue that this is true, and a reasonable assumption on which to make your purchase decisions, I would contend that yes, you are also very very confused about how ethics works.
Like, you can have a mutual state of knowledge about the uncertainty and the correct way to process that uncertainty. There are many plausible arguments for why random.org will spit out a specific number if you ask it for a random number, but it is also obvious that you are supposed to have uncertainty about what number it outputs. If someone shows up and claims to be confident that random.org will spit out a specific number next, they are obviously wrong, even if there was actually a non-trivial chance the number they were confident in will be picked.
The top-level post calculates an estimate in-expectation. If you calculate something in-expectation you are integrating your uncertainty. If you estimate that a randomly publicy traded company is worth 10x its ticker price, you might not be definitely wrong, but it is clear that you need to have a good argument, and if you do not have one, then you are obviously wrong.