I’m honestly surprised that other people haven’t covered this question on LW before, since it feels like very centrally in the space of questions LW folks tend to be interested in.
Your core argument was familiar to me, but I don’t recall immediately if or where I encountered it on LW before. I strongly associate it with the sequences on induction and Occam’s razor, and with List of Lethality, but I doubt that they mention an anthropic filter argument about what environment minds exist in, and probably it’s just that I read those documents around the time I contemplated Wigner’s puzzle myself.
Your core argument was familiar to me, but I don’t recall immediately if or where I encountered it on LW before. I strongly associate it with the sequences on induction and Occam’s razor, and with List of Lethality, but I doubt that they mention an anthropic filter argument about what environment minds exist in, and probably it’s just that I read those documents around the time I contemplated Wigner’s puzzle myself.