But ln(370/20)/ln(2) = 4.2. This means that the new strain doubled 4 times between September and mid-November, suggesting a typical doubling time of just over two weeks.
This is approximately what is observed at the end of December.
But indeed, I don’t understand why the number of infected people suddenly decreases at the end of November. An explanation would be helpful.
Where can we find the source saying that there were about 20 cases of new strains in September?
But indeed, I don’t understand why the number of infected people suddenly decreases at the end of November. An explanation would be helpful.
As henryaj says above, the UK was in a national lockdown Nov 5 - Dec 2. Accounting for a lag in catching it → positive test, that matches the graph reasonably well
upvoted.
But ln(370/20)/ln(2) = 4.2. This means that the new strain doubled 4 times between September and mid-November, suggesting a typical doubling time of just over two weeks.
This is approximately what is observed at the end of December.
But indeed, I don’t understand why the number of infected people suddenly decreases at the end of November. An explanation would be helpful.
Where can we find the source saying that there were about 20 cases of new strains in September?
As henryaj says above, the UK was in a national lockdown Nov 5 - Dec 2. Accounting for a lag in catching it → positive test, that matches the graph reasonably well