The long run stock market returns are just below 8% (https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/learn/average-stock-market-return#:~:text=Longer-term returns,-2018 is about 7.96%.), so I think your 12% is optimistic. Your “low returns” case is I think more accurate.
I’m not sure anything in your post really depends on the numbers, but that extra 4 points is a lot of money in the out years.
The long run stock market returns are just below 8% (https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/learn/average-stock-market-return#:~:text=Longer-term returns,-2018 is about 7.96%.), so I think your 12% is optimistic. Your “low returns” case is I think more accurate.
I’m not sure anything in your post really depends on the numbers, but that extra 4 points is a lot of money in the out years.