The trivia questions are not difficult enough. It is very seldom that values lie outside a times 2-range. And ‘surprises’ are rare.
The questions have an american cultural bias (no wonder)
The ‘going over’ rule is simple but totally skews the betting and guessing.
The simple payout-rules cause gaming for higher payouts thus mixing confidence and probability in non-trivial ways.
The two-phase setup where you can look where the ‘experts’ bet is interesting but doesn’t help with confidence calibration.
It really is optimized for playability. I think it does some calibration of (over)confidence and it builds intuition for probability and risk-trade-offs.
But—and that is my main point—it doesn’t have clear concepts. The concepts are all mingled up, skewed, hidden. You may gain intuition but it will not help you toward overcoming e.g. overconfidence bias or egocentric bias.
I still think for that the concept must be sufficiently present to be able to reflect and consciously use it.
I tried it out and it is much easier to play than my game (see http://lesswrong.com/lw/ilw/games_for_rationalists/ ) and thus is somewhat more fun. But it also has less insights.
My experience is as follows:
The trivia questions are not difficult enough. It is very seldom that values lie outside a times 2-range. And ‘surprises’ are rare.
The questions have an american cultural bias (no wonder)
The ‘going over’ rule is simple but totally skews the betting and guessing.
The simple payout-rules cause gaming for higher payouts thus mixing confidence and probability in non-trivial ways.
The two-phase setup where you can look where the ‘experts’ bet is interesting but doesn’t help with confidence calibration.
It really is optimized for playability. I think it does some calibration of (over)confidence and it builds intuition for probability and risk-trade-offs.
But—and that is my main point—it doesn’t have clear concepts. The concepts are all mingled up, skewed, hidden. You may gain intuition but it will not help you toward overcoming e.g. overconfidence bias or egocentric bias.
I still think for that the concept must be sufficiently present to be able to reflect and consciously use it.