Putin’s invasion is Bayesian evidence towards the conclusion that there was something intolerable about the nuclear situation in Ukraine.
Why the nuclear situation in particular (which you’ve said we can know nothing about), rather than just Ukraine getting closer to NATO, together with Putin’s explicit irredentism? It seems to me that Ukraine is just the lowest-hanging fruit. It must be the first step if he’s going to take any step at all, and any drift of Ukraine away from Russia, nukes or not, may take it out of his reach. Events have shown that his reach may yet exceed his grasp.
What is the Omicron connection? This shows a huge spike of cases in the US in January-February, but of deaths, not so much. It shows the same in Russia. Is Omicron substantially affecting military capability anywhere, or differentially between blocs?
Something I’d like to see, btw, but which I have never seen, is a breakdown by age of all charts like those. Raw deaths don’t say a great deal about societal impact.
Well, it’s too early to tell, but things are getting serious in China. I doubt it will affect Chinese military capability, but it’s definitely “differentially between blocs”.
Why the nuclear situation in particular (which you’ve said we can know nothing about), rather than just Ukraine getting closer to NATO, together with Putin’s explicit irredentism? It seems to me that Ukraine is just the lowest-hanging fruit. It must be the first step if he’s going to take any step at all, and any drift of Ukraine away from Russia, nukes or not, may take it out of his reach. Events have shown that his reach may yet exceed his grasp.
What is the Omicron connection? This shows a huge spike of cases in the US in January-February, but of deaths, not so much. It shows the same in Russia. Is Omicron substantially affecting military capability anywhere, or differentially between blocs?
Something I’d like to see, btw, but which I have never seen, is a breakdown by age of all charts like those. Raw deaths don’t say a great deal about societal impact.
Well, it’s too early to tell, but things are getting serious in China. I doubt it will affect Chinese military capability, but it’s definitely “differentially between blocs”.