Of course, it is much more likely to be predictable a couple of days in advance than a year in advance, but even the former may conceivably be quite challenging depending on situational awareness of near-human-level models in training.
Do I understand correctly that you think that we are likely to only recognize AGI after it has been built? If so, how would we recognize AGI as you define it?
Do you also think that AGI will result in a fast take-off?
That’s alright. Would you be able to articulate what you associate with AGI in general? For example, do you associate AGI with certain intellectual or physical capabilities, or do you associate it more with something like moral agency, personhood or consciousness?
Thank you for the clarification!
Do I understand correctly that you think that we are likely to only recognize AGI after it has been built? If so, how would we recognize AGI as you define it?
Do you also think that AGI will result in a fast take-off?
I don’t think I have anything better than a guess about any of those questions.
That’s alright. Would you be able to articulate what you associate with AGI in general? For example, do you associate AGI with certain intellectual or physical capabilities, or do you associate it more with something like moral agency, personhood or consciousness?