Interesting, but non-sequitur. That is, either you believe that interest rates will predictably increase and there’s free money on the table, and you should just say so, or not, and this anecdote doesn’t seem to be relevant (similarly, I made money buying NVDA around that time, but I don’t think that proves anything).
I am saying so! The market is definitely not pricing in AGI; doesn’t matter if it comes in 2028, or 2035, or 2040. Though interest rates are a pretty bad way to arb this; I would just buy call options on the Nasdaq.
Perhaps, but shouldn’t LLMs already be speeding up AI progress? And if so, shouldn’t that already be reflected in METR’s plot?
I am saying so! The market is definitely not pricing in AGI; doesn’t matter if it comes in 2028, or 2035, or 2040. Though interest rates are a pretty bad way to arb this; I would just buy call options on the Nasdaq.
Hmm well at least you’re consistent.
They’re not that useful yet.
Certainly I can see why you expect them to become more useful, I still feel like there’s some circularity here. Do you expect the current paradigm to continue advancing because LLM agents are somewhat useful now (as you said, for things like coding)? Unless that effect is currently negligible (and will undergo a sharp transition at some point) it seems we should expect it to already be reflected in the exponential growth rate claimed by METR.
I am saying so! The market is definitely not pricing in AGI; doesn’t matter if it comes in 2028, or 2035, or 2040. Though interest rates are a pretty bad way to arb this; I would just buy call options on the Nasdaq.
They’re not that useful yet.
Hmm well at least you’re consistent.
Certainly I can see why you expect them to become more useful, I still feel like there’s some circularity here. Do you expect the current paradigm to continue advancing because LLM agents are somewhat useful now (as you said, for things like coding)? Unless that effect is currently negligible (and will undergo a sharp transition at some point) it seems we should expect it to already be reflected in the exponential growth rate claimed by METR.