P(doom|Anthropic builds AGI) is 15% and P(doom|some other company builds AGI) is 30% --> You need to add to this the probability that Anthropic is first and that the other companies are not going to create AGI if Anthropic already created it. this is by default not the case
I agree, the net impact is definitely not the difference between these numbers.
Also I meant something more like P(doom|Anthropic builds AGI first).I don’t think people are imagining that the first AI company to achieve AGI will have an AGI monopoly forever. Instead some think it may have a large impact on what this technology is first used for and what expectations/regulations are built around it.
P(doom|Anthropic builds AGI) is 15% and P(doom|some other company builds AGI) is 30% --> You need to add to this the probability that Anthropic is first and that the other companies are not going to create AGI if Anthropic already created it. this is by default not the case
I agree, the net impact is definitely not the difference between these numbers.
Also I meant something more like P(doom|Anthropic builds AGI first).I don’t think people are imagining that the first AI company to achieve AGI will have an AGI monopoly forever. Instead some think it may have a large impact on what this technology is first used for and what expectations/regulations are built around it.