I agree and I am putting my money where my mouth is.
I will play this game under the rules linked in the OP with me as the gatekeeper and anyone as the AI. I will bet at odds 10:1 (favorable to you) that I will not let the AI out. The minimum bet is my 10 k USD against your 1 k USD and the maximum bet my 100 k USD against your 10 k USD. We will use a mutually accepted LW community member as referee.
If you believe you have at least a 10% chance of making me let the AI out, you should take this bet. I predict no one will take me up on it.
I speculate that the reason that gatekeepers let the AI out is that they do not take the experiment seriously enough. They don’t really care about not letting the AI out. Maybe they want the outcome to be that the AI has been let out so that people take AI safety more seriously. I’m not saying an actual superintelligence couldn’t do it, but no currently available intelligence can (with me as the gatekeeper).
I don’t care to compete because I expect to lose, but strategies that might work against this seem like they’d look like investment pitches. that’s typically what gets people to move that much money, after all.
I’d also bet $50 as a gatekeeper. I won this game as a gatekeeper before and now need someone to put my ego in place. I’d prefer to play against someone who won as the AI before.
This post prompted me to wonder to which degree there might be publication bias going on in that people don’t report when they “predictably” won as the gatekeeper (as I did).
That’s not a constraint. The game is intended to provide evidence as to the containment of a future superhuman intelligence. GPT-4 is a present-day subhuman intelligence, and couldn’t do any harm if it got out.
fair enough. for the record, since people started proposing bets, I quickly realized I don’t really expect to be able to manipulate anyone even that well, so the point is moot in any case.
I cannot imagine losing this game as the gatekeeper either, honestly.
Does anyone want to play against me? I’ll bet you $50 USD.
I agree and I am putting my money where my mouth is.
I will play this game under the rules linked in the OP with me as the gatekeeper and anyone as the AI. I will bet at odds 10:1 (favorable to you) that I will not let the AI out. The minimum bet is my 10 k USD against your 1 k USD and the maximum bet my 100 k USD against your 10 k USD. We will use a mutually accepted LW community member as referee.
If you believe you have at least a 10% chance of making me let the AI out, you should take this bet. I predict no one will take me up on it.
I speculate that the reason that gatekeepers let the AI out is that they do not take the experiment seriously enough. They don’t really care about not letting the AI out. Maybe they want the outcome to be that the AI has been let out so that people take AI safety more seriously. I’m not saying an actual superintelligence couldn’t do it, but no currently available intelligence can (with me as the gatekeeper).
I too am confident enough as gatekeeper that I’m willing to offer similar odds. My minimum and maximum bets are my $10,000 USD vs your $1,000 USD.
I don’t care to compete because I expect to lose, but strategies that might work against this seem like they’d look like investment pitches. that’s typically what gets people to move that much money, after all.
I also don’t think I would lose as the gatekeeper(against a human), and would be willing to make a similar bet if anyone’s interested.
I’d also bet $50 as a gatekeeper. I won this game as a gatekeeper before and now need someone to put my ego in place. I’d prefer to play against someone who won as the AI before.
This post prompted me to wonder to which degree there might be publication bias going on in that people don’t report when they “predictably” won as the gatekeeper (as I did).
I can think of lots of ways to manipulate someone but I can’t think of any that would win this game with the constraint that I have to sound like GPT4
That’s not a constraint. The game is intended to provide evidence as to the containment of a future superhuman intelligence. GPT-4 is a present-day subhuman intelligence, and couldn’t do any harm if it got out.
fair enough. for the record, since people started proposing bets, I quickly realized I don’t really expect to be able to manipulate anyone even that well, so the point is moot in any case.