Only after a while! The highest scorers in the first few days of poker tournaments tend to be irrationally aggressive players who got lucky. So expect early leaderboards to be filled with silly people.If the average user only makes a bet a week, it might take years.
Agree. Also I realized when I gave lk-99 as an example : it doesn’t take a superforecaster to guess a room temperature superconductor market might be overvalued. So the effect of that trading event is moving “dumb fake money” to “slightly less dumb fake money”. It’s enriching a bunch of less-than-super forecasters who will make bets and only lose money with time.
Real money markets aren’t actually different, dumb money can move into a market from outside.
The p2w element of manifold may also reduce it’s predictive power, since willingness to pay for mana may be uncorrelated with predictive ability.
Only after a while! The highest scorers in the first few days of poker tournaments tend to be irrationally aggressive players who got lucky. So expect early leaderboards to be filled with silly people.If the average user only makes a bet a week, it might take years.
Agree. Also I realized when I gave lk-99 as an example : it doesn’t take a superforecaster to guess a room temperature superconductor market might be overvalued. So the effect of that trading event is moving “dumb fake money” to “slightly less dumb fake money”. It’s enriching a bunch of less-than-super forecasters who will make bets and only lose money with time.
Real money markets aren’t actually different, dumb money can move into a market from outside.
The p2w element of manifold may also reduce it’s predictive power, since willingness to pay for mana may be uncorrelated with predictive ability.