You can still run experiments, just with a fixed capabilities ceiling
The Pause means all things to all people:
A complete ban forever or until someone cheats.
A complete ban for the foreseeable future (until we become better people in some unspecified way?)
“Unfortunately it’s already too useful”—inference is permitted, just no training or research. Use of inference for research is … allowed? not considered? AI autoresearch … isn’t available for $20/month yet and so is clearly impossible.
And now: “you can have a little research, as a treat.” Which I suppose was always going to happen since models of “6 months ago frontier performance” now run on a high end laptop.
I personally think the “yes inference / no training” split is flat out doomed. The “some training allowed” idea makes it even harder to police. In the end though, whatever else it is, AGI/ASI is a strategic national security technology—classified research is not going to be paused. We aren’t going to get more time.
The Pause means all things to all people:
A complete ban forever or until someone cheats.
A complete ban for the foreseeable future (until we become better people in some unspecified way?)
“Unfortunately it’s already too useful”—inference is permitted, just no training or research. Use of inference for research is … allowed? not considered? AI autoresearch … isn’t available for $20/month yet and so is clearly impossible.
And now: “you can have a little research, as a treat.” Which I suppose was always going to happen since models of “6 months ago frontier performance” now run on a high end laptop.
I personally think the “yes inference / no training” split is flat out doomed. The “some training allowed” idea makes it even harder to police. In the end though, whatever else it is, AGI/ASI is a strategic national security technology—classified research is not going to be paused. We aren’t going to get more time.
for https://www.lesswrong.com/users/stanislavkrym … qwen 3.8 27b …
https://x.com/udiWertheimer/status/2089421927085400203