Many people believe that about climate change (due to global political disruption, economic collapse etcetera, praising the size of the disaster seems virtuous).
Hm! I cannot recall a single instance of this. (Hm, well; I can recall one instance of a TV interview with a politician from a non-first-world island nation taking projections seriously which would put his nation under water, so it would not be much of a stretch to think that he’s taking seriously the possibility that people close to him may die from this.) If you have, probably this is because I haven’t read that much about what people say about climate change. Could you give me an indication of the extent of your evidence, to help me decide how much to update?
Many others do not believe it about AI.
Ok, agreed, and this still seems likely even if you imagine sensible AI risk analyses being similarly well-known as climate change analyses are today. I can see how it could lead to an outcome similar to today’s situation with climate change if that happened… Still, if the analysis says “you will die of this”, and the brain of the person considering the analysis is willing to assign it some credence, that seems to align personal selfishness with global interests more than (climate change as it has looked to me so far).
Many people believe that about climate change (due to global political disruption, economic collapse etcetera, praising the size of the disaster seems virtuous).
Hm! I cannot recall a single instance of this.
Will keep an eye out for the next citation.
Still, if the analysis says “you will die of this”, and the brain of the person considering the analysis is willing to assign it some credence
This has not happened with AI risk so far among most AIfolk, or anyone the slightest bit motivated to reject the advice. We had a similar conversation at MIRI once, in which I was arguing that, no, people don’t automatically change their behavior as soon as they are told that something bad might happen to them personally; and when we were breaking it up, Anna, on her way out, asked Louie downstairs how he had reasoned about choosing to ride motorcycles.
People only avoid certain sorts of death risks under certain circumstances.
We had a similar conversation at MIRI once, in which I was arguing that, no, people don’t automatically change their behavior as soon as they are told that something bad might happen to them personally
Being told something is dangerous =/= believing it is =/= alieving it is.
Hm! I cannot recall a single instance of this. (Hm, well; I can recall one instance of a TV interview with a politician from a non-first-world island nation taking projections seriously which would put his nation under water, so it would not be much of a stretch to think that he’s taking seriously the possibility that people close to him may die from this.) If you have, probably this is because I haven’t read that much about what people say about climate change. Could you give me an indication of the extent of your evidence, to help me decide how much to update?
Ok, agreed, and this still seems likely even if you imagine sensible AI risk analyses being similarly well-known as climate change analyses are today. I can see how it could lead to an outcome similar to today’s situation with climate change if that happened… Still, if the analysis says “you will die of this”, and the brain of the person considering the analysis is willing to assign it some credence, that seems to align personal selfishness with global interests more than (climate change as it has looked to me so far).
Will keep an eye out for the next citation.
This has not happened with AI risk so far among most AIfolk, or anyone the slightest bit motivated to reject the advice. We had a similar conversation at MIRI once, in which I was arguing that, no, people don’t automatically change their behavior as soon as they are told that something bad might happen to them personally; and when we were breaking it up, Anna, on her way out, asked Louie downstairs how he had reasoned about choosing to ride motorcycles.
People only avoid certain sorts of death risks under certain circumstances.
Thanks!
Point. Need to think.
Being told something is dangerous =/= believing it is =/= alieving it is.