Huh. It seems like there is some general theorem here that might be worth writing up. If we combine the heavy-tailed hypothesis with this theorem, maybe we get some sort of nontrivial and useful general heuristic: The optimal allocation of time/money/etc. is proportional to the probability that a project is the most valuable thing you can be doing. That is, take the options you are considering, and evaluate the probability that each option is the best of the bunch. Then, distribute your resources according to that probability. This will be optimal or approximately optimal so long as (1) returns to resources diminish logarithmically for each project at about the same rate, and (2) the best project is likely to be several times better than the next-best and so on (heavy-tailed distribution of project goodness). I think 2 is usually true for altrustic projects, and insofar as 1 is false, maybe it doesn’t matter because we are ignorant of which project diminishes faster, or maybe we do know which project diminishes faster and we can adjust accordingly (it should just be another multiplier to the ratio when dividing up resources, I think). I expect someone has said all this before somewhere...
Huh. It seems like there is some general theorem here that might be worth writing up. If we combine the heavy-tailed hypothesis with this theorem, maybe we get some sort of nontrivial and useful general heuristic: The optimal allocation of time/money/etc. is proportional to the probability that a project is the most valuable thing you can be doing. That is, take the options you are considering, and evaluate the probability that each option is the best of the bunch. Then, distribute your resources according to that probability. This will be optimal or approximately optimal so long as (1) returns to resources diminish logarithmically for each project at about the same rate, and (2) the best project is likely to be several times better than the next-best and so on (heavy-tailed distribution of project goodness). I think 2 is usually true for altrustic projects, and insofar as 1 is false, maybe it doesn’t matter because we are ignorant of which project diminishes faster, or maybe we do know which project diminishes faster and we can adjust accordingly (it should just be another multiplier to the ratio when dividing up resources, I think). I expect someone has said all this before somewhere...