I’m guessing the difference here is that I’m expecting more RSI, and that I expect AI to get heavily applied to finding all the places where it can displace humans. Labor is such a big cost to companies.
I think considering the US workforce vs. the broader global workforce could change the median, but certainly for the US workforce I’m on board with the 3 year timeline.
I agree that one’s median date for the US workforce should be sooner than for the global workforce (largely because it takes time to build billions of robots to do physical tasks and the US is expected to get such robots before many other countries), but I still think my median is >5 years for the US.
I’m guessing the difference here is that I’m expecting more RSI
Yes, this seems plausible. Both RSI scenarios where we survive and where we don’t survive:
If all humans are dead by 2030, then humans are no longer productively contributing in the workforce, so your ~20% on us being dead by 2030 due to AI (from your May post) is contributing to your forecast on humans being no longer able to contribute in 3 years being higher than mine, I think.
I’m guessing another difference is that I’m expecting it’s more likely that we “pace the frontier” and slow down AI development and deployment in the next 3 years, such that even if it was possible for AI to automate AI research and the full AI production supply chain to build robot factories and billions of robots that could outcompete most people globally for all jobs within 3 years, that won’t actually happen that quickly thanks to society’s “pacing” efforts.
I’m guessing the difference here is that I’m expecting more RSI, and that I expect AI to get heavily applied to finding all the places where it can displace humans. Labor is such a big cost to companies.
I think considering the US workforce vs. the broader global workforce could change the median, but certainly for the US workforce I’m on board with the 3 year timeline.
I agree that one’s median date for the US workforce should be sooner than for the global workforce (largely because it takes time to build billions of robots to do physical tasks and the US is expected to get such robots before many other countries), but I still think my median is >5 years for the US.
Yes, this seems plausible. Both RSI scenarios where we survive and where we don’t survive:
If all humans are dead by 2030, then humans are no longer productively contributing in the workforce, so your ~20% on us being dead by 2030 due to AI (from your May post) is contributing to your forecast on humans being no longer able to contribute in 3 years being higher than mine, I think.
I’m guessing another difference is that I’m expecting it’s more likely that we “pace the frontier” and slow down AI development and deployment in the next 3 years, such that even if it was possible for AI to automate AI research and the full AI production supply chain to build robot factories and billions of robots that could outcompete most people globally for all jobs within 3 years, that won’t actually happen that quickly thanks to society’s “pacing” efforts.