I’m only looking for smaller bets, around $50-100, to a charity of the others’s choosing. To me it’s less about the money and more about trying to operationalize possibly differing probability distributions over future outcomes. I’m game to bet on unemployment (probably higher than 6.4% based on your statement, but perhaps by August 2029?), or something else if you think it is more about opportunities for significant altruistic impact being gone.
We need to be careful here because many definitions of unemployment wouldn’t capture this kind of change. For example, if someone drops out of the labor force entirely because they can’t get a job, they are not normally counted as unemployed. I think the cleanest version is to look at the fraction of the core working age population that is employed. How about https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 below 50% for 2029-08? My $50 to charity against Andy’s $75, to cover xrisk/collapse/etc?
If the seasonally adjusted August 2029 value of FRED series LNS12300060 is below 50.0%, I will donate $75 to a charity of your choice. Otherwise, you will donate $50 to a charity of mine. We will use the first published value for August 2029. If no August 2029 value has been published by December 31, 2029, the bet is void.
@jefftk What William said! Thanks William.
I’m only looking for smaller bets, around $50-100, to a charity of the others’s choosing. To me it’s less about the money and more about trying to operationalize possibly differing probability distributions over future outcomes. I’m game to bet on unemployment (probably higher than 6.4% based on your statement, but perhaps by August 2029?), or something else if you think it is more about opportunities for significant altruistic impact being gone.
We need to be careful here because many definitions of unemployment wouldn’t capture this kind of change. For example, if someone drops out of the labor force entirely because they can’t get a job, they are not normally counted as unemployed. I think the cleanest version is to look at the fraction of the core working age population that is employed. How about https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 below 50% for 2029-08? My $50 to charity against Andy’s $75, to cover xrisk/collapse/etc?
Sounds good to me! How about this?
If the seasonally adjusted August 2029 value of FRED series LNS12300060 is below 50.0%, I will donate $75 to a charity of your choice. Otherwise, you will donate $50 to a charity of mine. We will use the first published value for August 2029. If no August 2029 value has been published by December 31, 2029, the bet is void.