Work aiming to make an impact in worlds in which we successfully arrange a pause does make sense, and I do think some people should be working on it. But:
In those worlds we have time, so there’s often not a good reason to take those actions now when the opportunity cost is high and the benefit is discounted by the risk we don’t get there.
On the margin, relative to today, I think many more people should be working on trying to bring about such a world.
So much work people describe to me as being valuable in these worlds isn’t even accounting for the disruption and change that will be downstream from AI we already have.
Work aiming to make an impact in worlds in which we successfully arrange a pause does make sense, and I do think some people should be working on it. But:
In those worlds we have time, so there’s often not a good reason to take those actions now when the opportunity cost is high and the benefit is discounted by the risk we don’t get there.
On the margin, relative to today, I think many more people should be working on trying to bring about such a world.
So much work people describe to me as being valuable in these worlds isn’t even accounting for the disruption and change that will be downstream from AI we already have.