But the day after that, the probability of the sun rising the next 10,000 days has increased even more, and the probability of your hypothesis has dropped to zero.
Who says this will happen in the first place? Even if you personally know that the sun will rise tomorrow like it always did, you’re not allowed to use that fact while solving the problem of induction.
Maybe an important insight into why the justification of induction remains so puzzling. We should be justifying induction as a policy, not as a magic-bullet formula which works in each and every instance.
Who says this will happen in the first place? Even if you personally know that the sun will rise tomorrow like it always did, you’re not allowed to use that fact while solving the problem of induction.
The only reason that I’m using it is because in real life we update more than once.
But if you want to focus on the single update, yes, both hypotheses become more probable.
Maybe an important insight into why the justification of induction remains so puzzling. We should be justifying induction as a policy, not as a magic-bullet formula which works in each and every instance.