I don’t see the probability-estimation causality here—I don’t understand your priors if you’re updating this way. If we’re in a simulation, the fact that we’re making some progress on AI-like modeling doesn’t seem to DEPEND on being in that simulation. If we’re on the “outside”, and are actually in a “natural” universe, this kind of transformer doesn’t seem to provide any evidence on whether we can create full-fidelity simulations in the future.
The simulation hypothesis DEPENDS on the simulation being self-contained enough that there are no in-universe tests which can prove or disprove it, AND on being detailed enough to contain agents of sufficient complexity to wonder whether it’s a simulation. Neither of those requirements are informed by current technological advances or measurements.
Note: I currently think of the simulation hypothesis as similar to MWI in quantum mechanics—it’s a model that cannot be proven or disproven, and has zero impact on predicting future experiences of humans (or other in-universe intelligences).
I don’t see the probability-estimation causality here—I don’t understand your priors if you’re updating this way. If we’re in a simulation, the fact that we’re making some progress on AI-like modeling doesn’t seem to DEPEND on being in that simulation. If we’re on the “outside”, and are actually in a “natural” universe, this kind of transformer doesn’t seem to provide any evidence on whether we can create full-fidelity simulations in the future.
The simulation hypothesis DEPENDS on the simulation being self-contained enough that there are no in-universe tests which can prove or disprove it, AND on being detailed enough to contain agents of sufficient complexity to wonder whether it’s a simulation. Neither of those requirements are informed by current technological advances or measurements.
Note: I currently think of the simulation hypothesis as similar to MWI in quantum mechanics—it’s a model that cannot be proven or disproven, and has zero impact on predicting future experiences of humans (or other in-universe intelligences).