It seems pretty plausible that the AI will trade for compute with some other person around the world.
Whether this is what I’m trying to call a zero-sum action depends on whose resources it’s trading. If the plan is “spend a bunch of the capital that its creators have given it on compute somewhere else”, then I think this is importantly zero-sum—the resources are being taken from the creators of AI, which is why the AI was able to spend so many resources. If the plan was instead “produce some ten trillion dollar invention, then sell it, then use the proceeds to buy compute elsewhere”, this would seem less zero-sum, and I’m saying that I expect the first kind of thing to happen before the second.
Whether this is what I’m trying to call a zero-sum action depends on whose resources it’s trading. If the plan is “spend a bunch of the capital that its creators have given it on compute somewhere else”, then I think this is importantly zero-sum—the resources are being taken from the creators of AI, which is why the AI was able to spend so many resources. If the plan was instead “produce some ten trillion dollar invention, then sell it, then use the proceeds to buy compute elsewhere”, this would seem less zero-sum, and I’m saying that I expect the first kind of thing to happen before the second.