Again, I ask that you look at this from the perspective of an actual participant in the survey. That person is imagining grabbing a random person and tossing them off a bridge on very short notice. Numerous factors come into play, and the participant is going to consider them whether or not you assure them that they don’t matter.
Another reason the trolley problem is bogus is that if you were really in such a situation, you wouldn’t be sure your attempt to push the guy onto the track would even succeed. What if he saw you coming and resisted? Pushing a lever with 100% of success is different from pushing a guy with 87% estimated success and consequences if you fail.
Yes, I think this is a serious problem. All the ways I can think of to give you a very high chance of shoving the guy off mean that you don’t have to actually touch him, just (say) cut a rope, and that wouldn’t just make it more likely you’d succeed but introduce a counfounding effect of making it slightly less personal for you.
This is in part because I don’t really believe the explanation for non-shoving that says it has to do with not using people to an end; I think it’s just squeamishness about shoving someone with your own hands who was right next to you. If you were dropping them onto the tracks from a great distance by pulling a lever, I think people would pull the lever a lot more often. I haven’t tested this, of course.
Then add in some irrelevant noise considerations, such as “one of the people on the tracks who is about to die is your wife, but the guy you are going to push off is a war veteran”, etc. The dilemma doesn’t have to be fine tuned—a broad variety of choices all exhibit the same properties.
Another reason the trolley problem is bogus is that if you were really in such a situation, you wouldn’t be sure your attempt to push the guy onto the track would even succeed. What if he saw you coming and resisted? Pushing a lever with 100% of success is different from pushing a guy with 87% estimated success and consequences if you fail.
Yes, I think this is a serious problem. All the ways I can think of to give you a very high chance of shoving the guy off mean that you don’t have to actually touch him, just (say) cut a rope, and that wouldn’t just make it more likely you’d succeed but introduce a counfounding effect of making it slightly less personal for you.
This is in part because I don’t really believe the explanation for non-shoving that says it has to do with not using people to an end; I think it’s just squeamishness about shoving someone with your own hands who was right next to you. If you were dropping them onto the tracks from a great distance by pulling a lever, I think people would pull the lever a lot more often. I haven’t tested this, of course.
Then make the lever probabilistic.
Well if you fine-tune the conditions of a hypothetical dilemma too much, people will tend to go with a useful heuristic: they will call bullshit.
Then add in some irrelevant noise considerations, such as “one of the people on the tracks who is about to die is your wife, but the guy you are going to push off is a war veteran”, etc. The dilemma doesn’t have to be fine tuned—a broad variety of choices all exhibit the same properties.