Has GPT-3 / large transformers actually led to anything with economic value? Not from what I can tell although anecdotal reports on Twitter are that many SWEs are finding Github Copilot extremely useful (it’s still in private beta though). I think transformers are going to start providing actual value soon, but the fact they haven’t so far despite almost two years of breathless hype is interesting to contemplate. I’ve learned to ignore hype, demos, cool cherry-picked sample outputs, and benchmark chasing and actually look at what is being deployed “in the real world” and bringing value to people. So many systems that looked amazing in academic papers have flopped when deployed—even from top firms—for instance Microsoft’s Tay and Google Health’s system for detecting diabetic retinopathy. Another example is Google’s Duplex. And for how long have we heard about burger flipping robots taking people’s jobs?
There are reasons to be skeptical about about a scaled up GPT leading to AGI. I touched on some of those points here. There’s also an argument that the hardware costs are going to balloon so quickly to make the entire project economically unfeasible, but I’m pretty skeptical about that.
I’m more worried about someone reverse engineering the wiring of cortical columns in the neocortex in the next few years and then replicating it in silicon.
Long story short, is existentially dangerous AI eminent? Not as far as we can see right now knowing what we know right now (we can’t see that far in the future, since it depends on discoveries and scientific knowledge we don’t have). Could that change quickly anytime? Yes. There is Knightian uncertainty here, I think (to use a concept that LessWrongers generally hate lol).
Economic value might not be a perfect measure. Nuclear fission didn’t generate any economic value either until 200.000 in Japan were incinerated. My fear is that a mixture of experts approach can lead to extremely fast progress towards AGI. Perhaps even less—maybe all it takes is an agent AI that can code as well as humans, to start a cascade of recursive self-improvement.
But indeed, a Knightian uncertainty here would already put me at some ease. As long as you can be sure that it won’t happen “just anytime” before some more barriers are crossed, at least you can still sleep at night and have the sanity to try to do something.
I don’t know, I’m not a technical person, that’s why I’m asking questions and hoping to learn more.
“I’m more worried about someone reverse engineering the wiring of cortical columns in the neocortex in the next few years and then replicating it in silicon.”
Personally that’s what worries me the least. We can’t even crack c.elegans! I don’t doubt that in 100-200 years we’d get there but I see many other way faster routes.
Has GPT-3 / large transformers actually led to anything with economic value? Not from what I can tell although anecdotal reports on Twitter are that many SWEs are finding Github Copilot extremely useful (it’s still in private beta though). I think transformers are going to start providing actual value soon, but the fact they haven’t so far despite almost two years of breathless hype is interesting to contemplate. I’ve learned to ignore hype, demos, cool cherry-picked sample outputs, and benchmark chasing and actually look at what is being deployed “in the real world” and bringing value to people. So many systems that looked amazing in academic papers have flopped when deployed—even from top firms—for instance Microsoft’s Tay and Google Health’s system for detecting diabetic retinopathy. Another example is Google’s Duplex. And for how long have we heard about burger flipping robots taking people’s jobs?
There are reasons to be skeptical about about a scaled up GPT leading to AGI. I touched on some of those points here. There’s also an argument that the hardware costs are going to balloon so quickly to make the entire project economically unfeasible, but I’m pretty skeptical about that.
I’m more worried about someone reverse engineering the wiring of cortical columns in the neocortex in the next few years and then replicating it in silicon.
Long story short, is existentially dangerous AI eminent? Not as far as we can see right now knowing what we know right now (we can’t see that far in the future, since it depends on discoveries and scientific knowledge we don’t have). Could that change quickly anytime? Yes. There is Knightian uncertainty here, I think (to use a concept that LessWrongers generally hate lol).
Economic value might not be a perfect measure. Nuclear fission didn’t generate any economic value either until 200.000 in Japan were incinerated. My fear is that a mixture of experts approach can lead to extremely fast progress towards AGI. Perhaps even less—maybe all it takes is an agent AI that can code as well as humans, to start a cascade of recursive self-improvement.
But indeed, a Knightian uncertainty here would already put me at some ease. As long as you can be sure that it won’t happen “just anytime” before some more barriers are crossed, at least you can still sleep at night and have the sanity to try to do something.
I don’t know, I’m not a technical person, that’s why I’m asking questions and hoping to learn more.
“I’m more worried about someone reverse engineering the wiring of cortical columns in the neocortex in the next few years and then replicating it in silicon.”
Personally that’s what worries me the least. We can’t even crack c.elegans! I don’t doubt that in 100-200 years we’d get there but I see many other way faster routes.