I think this consideration goes the other way, unless I’m misunderstanding. Algorithms diffuse to covert projects, but compute doesn’t, in the Plan A scenario, we deliberately scale compute for this reason while heavily limiting algorithmic progress.
(Also note that the 1.5M H100e is before accounting for detection)
I struggle to understand this. Section 2 on covert AIs contains the following phrase: “We estimate that, under competent US execution of our policies in Plan A, a competently-executed PRC diversion effort beginning one year in advance of the deal would be able to acquire between0.1% and 1.4% (80% CI) of the world’s AI-relevant compute at the start of the deal, without the US getting unambiguous evidence of violation,” and the median estimate is the very 1.5M H100-equivalents. Additionally, what prevents the secret project from recreating the algorithms which the larger humanity tabooed?
I think this consideration goes the other way, unless I’m misunderstanding. Algorithms diffuse to covert projects, but compute doesn’t, in the Plan A scenario, we deliberately scale compute for this reason while heavily limiting algorithmic progress.
(Also note that the 1.5M H100e is before accounting for detection)
I struggle to understand this. Section 2 on covert AIs contains the following phrase: “We estimate that, under competent US execution of our policies in Plan A, a competently-executed PRC diversion effort beginning one year in advance of the deal would be able to acquire between 0.1% and 1.4% (80% CI) of the world’s AI-relevant compute at the start of the deal, without the US getting unambiguous evidence of violation,” and the median estimate is the very 1.5M H100-equivalents. Additionally, what prevents the secret project from recreating the algorithms which the larger humanity tabooed?