Right. Because either you believe AI has already made an impact (it has, see recsys for production use of AI that matters) or it will imminently.
The true probability when metaculus resolves as yes isn’t actually zero but the chance you get forecaster credit if you are on the wrong side of the bet IS.
I’d imagine Gerald’s “probability 0” is something like Metaculus’s “resolved as yes”—that is, the even in question has already happened.
Right. Because either you believe AI has already made an impact (it has, see recsys for production use of AI that matters) or it will imminently.
The true probability when metaculus resolves as yes isn’t actually zero but the chance you get forecaster credit if you are on the wrong side of the bet IS.