An independent piece of evidence moves the log-odds a constant additive amount regardless of the prior. Averaging log-odds amounts to moving 2⁄3 of that distance if 2⁄3 of the people have the particular piece of evidence. It may behave badly if the evidence is not independent, but if all you have are posteriors, I think it’s the best you can do.
An independent piece of evidence moves the log-odds a constant additive amount regardless of the prior. Averaging log-odds amounts to moving 2⁄3 of that distance if 2⁄3 of the people have the particular piece of evidence. It may behave badly if the evidence is not independent, but if all you have are posteriors, I think it’s the best you can do.