I think this is just a sigmoid function, but mirrored over the y-axis. If you extended it farther into the past, it would certainly flatten out just below 100%. So I think it’s just another example of how specific technologies are adopted in sigmoid curves, except in reverse, because people are dis-adopting manual farming.
(And I think the question of why tech grows in sigmoid curves is because that’s the solution to the differential equation that models the fundamental dynamics of “grows proportional to position, up to a carrying capacity”.)
I’m here from the future trying to decide how much to believe in and how common are Gods of Straight Lines, and curious if you could say more arguing about this.
Sigmoid is usually what “straight line” should mean for a quantity bounded at 0 and 1. It’s a straight line in logit-space, the most natural space which complies with that range restriction. (Just as exponentials are often the correct form of “straight line” for things that are required to be positive but have no ceiling in sight.)
I think this is just a sigmoid function, but mirrored over the y-axis. If you extended it farther into the past, it would certainly flatten out just below 100%. So I think it’s just another example of how specific technologies are adopted in sigmoid curves, except in reverse, because people are dis-adopting manual farming.
(And I think the question of why tech grows in sigmoid curves is because that’s the solution to the differential equation that models the fundamental dynamics of “grows proportional to position, up to a carrying capacity”.)
I’m here from the future trying to decide how much to believe in and how common are Gods of Straight Lines, and curious if you could say more arguing about this.
Sigmoid is usually what “straight line” should mean for a quantity bounded at 0 and 1. It’s a straight line in logit-space, the most natural space which complies with that range restriction.
(Just as exponentials are often the correct form of “straight line” for things that are required to be positive but have no ceiling in sight.)