Considering how much LW and the Sequences talk about doing Bayesian updates, I figured it’s worth talking about a downside I am experiencing. I closely monitor Metaculus and adjust my vaccination expectations accordingly. I have certain events that are on hold until I get vaccinated. Therefore, the optimal strategy would seem to be:
Look up a predicted vaccination date range (e.g. late April)
Schedule the appointments for late April
Go to step 1.
What I didn’t expect was the level of effort required by step 2 after the first run through. It gets tiring to call people every few months and say something like “Oops, we have to reschedule again...”
Considering how much LW and the Sequences talk about doing Bayesian updates, I figured it’s worth talking about a downside I am experiencing. I closely monitor Metaculus and adjust my vaccination expectations accordingly. I have certain events that are on hold until I get vaccinated. Therefore, the optimal strategy would seem to be:
Look up a predicted vaccination date range (e.g. late April)
Schedule the appointments for late April
Go to step 1.
What I didn’t expect was the level of effort required by step 2 after the first run through. It gets tiring to call people every few months and say something like “Oops, we have to reschedule again...”