I don’t know if it’s a good or not-good explanation, but in a lot of discussions of these examples, a different question will be answered than you’re asking. But also #1, and also some ok-version-of-not-so-good: we cap our probability estimates with plausibility heuristics. If I’d be surprised but not shocked to see something, it’s not less than 5% probability. If I’d be shocked, but not question everything I know, it’s not less than 0.1% (for reference classes with a few-per-lifetime incidence of resolution).
“Human activity has caused substantial increases in global mean surface temperature over the last 50 years and barring major policy changes will continue to do so over at least the next 50 years—say, at least half a kelvin in each case.”
Generally, people seem to answer about whether policy changes are possible or useful, even when they claim to be discussing causality and prediction. This topic is rife with arguments-as-soldiers, and it’s unsurprising that probability estimates are hard to find.
“On average, Christians in Western Europe donated a larger fraction of their income last year to non-religious charitable causes than atheists.”
Wow, never thought about this, but I have trouble with the categorizations—I know a whole lot of semi-Christians (and Jews and Muslims) who could be counted in either camp, and a whole lot of charities which have religious origins but are currently not affiliated. In any case, I’d wonder why you were asking and how my prediction would change any behavior.
“Over the next 10 years, a typical index-fund-like basket of US stocks will increase by more than 5% per annum above inflation.”
This one is better. Define the basket and inflation index and I’ll make a bet. S&P 500 vs US CPI, I’d say about 15% to beat it by 5% per year (62% over the decade). Even so, I’d expect the joint prediction about inflation and return on investment to cause confusion. This is one where my proposed plausibility heuristic is putting a cap on my confidence level. For “reasonable” numbers, I don’t think I can be more than 95% confident.
“In 2040, most global electricity generation will be from renewable sources.”
Definition of “renewable” makes this one tricky, and questions about whether to include energy that could be electric or not (heating, for instance). Is nuclear included? I think we could narrow it down to a specific prediction that one could have a prediction market on. I don’t know enough to bet, myself. And I won’t be shocked in either direction, so my estimates can’t be very strong.
I don’t know if it’s a good or not-good explanation, but in a lot of discussions of these examples, a different question will be answered than you’re asking. But also #1, and also some ok-version-of-not-so-good: we cap our probability estimates with plausibility heuristics. If I’d be surprised but not shocked to see something, it’s not less than 5% probability. If I’d be shocked, but not question everything I know, it’s not less than 0.1% (for reference classes with a few-per-lifetime incidence of resolution).
Generally, people seem to answer about whether policy changes are possible or useful, even when they claim to be discussing causality and prediction. This topic is rife with arguments-as-soldiers, and it’s unsurprising that probability estimates are hard to find.
Wow, never thought about this, but I have trouble with the categorizations—I know a whole lot of semi-Christians (and Jews and Muslims) who could be counted in either camp, and a whole lot of charities which have religious origins but are currently not affiliated. In any case, I’d wonder why you were asking and how my prediction would change any behavior.
This one is better. Define the basket and inflation index and I’ll make a bet. S&P 500 vs US CPI, I’d say about 15% to beat it by 5% per year (62% over the decade). Even so, I’d expect the joint prediction about inflation and return on investment to cause confusion. This is one where my proposed plausibility heuristic is putting a cap on my confidence level. For “reasonable” numbers, I don’t think I can be more than 95% confident.
Definition of “renewable” makes this one tricky, and questions about whether to include energy that could be electric or not (heating, for instance). Is nuclear included? I think we could narrow it down to a specific prediction that one could have a prediction market on. I don’t know enough to bet, myself. And I won’t be shocked in either direction, so my estimates can’t be very strong.