Really fantastic that you started an effective charity! Everything about your approach is awesome. I hope the rest of your top 8 get test driven (by you or others) someday as well.
Generally I agree with the spreadsheeting concept. There’s also Guesstimate for when your weights and uncertainties are numerical.
Really fantastic that you started an effective charity! Everything about your approach is awesome. I hope the rest of your top 8 get test driven (by you or others) someday as well.
Generally I agree with the spreadsheeting concept. There’s also Guesstimate for when your weights and uncertainties are numerical.
Thanks for the amazing tool suggestion! I wonder why I’ve never seen it used in Lesswrong estimations before.