Imagine there are a trillion variants of Islam, differing by one sentence in the holy book or something. At most one of them can be true. You pick one variant at random, test it with your machine and get 30 1′s in a row. Now you should be damn convinced that you picked the true one, right? Wrong. Getting this result by a fluke is ~1000x more likely than picking the true variant in the first place. Probability is unintuitive and our brains are mush, that’s all I’m sayin’.
Thank you a lot for posting this scenario.
Imagine there are a trillion variants of Islam, differing by one sentence in the holy book or something. At most one of them can be true. You pick one variant at random, test it with your machine and get 30 1′s in a row. Now you should be damn convinced that you picked the true one, right? Wrong. Getting this result by a fluke is ~1000x more likely than picking the true variant in the first place. Probability is unintuitive and our brains are mush, that’s all I’m sayin’.