I will personally be updating my priors depending on the results of this test. If it turns out that the AC is actually bad at its job, I will very slightly update towards being pessimistic about us catching failure modes of AGI before it’s too late. If, however, it turns out that it does not make a substantial difference, I will somewhat more strongly (though not very strongly) update towards being more concerned about us missing these sorts of things. One question I’m not sure how to answer is how (if at all) I should update based on the seemingly obvious cherry-picked example not being obvious at all.
I will personally be updating my priors depending on the results of this test. If it turns out that the AC is actually bad at its job, I will very slightly update towards being pessimistic about us catching failure modes of AGI before it’s too late. If, however, it turns out that it does not make a substantial difference, I will somewhat more strongly (though not very strongly) update towards being more concerned about us missing these sorts of things. One question I’m not sure how to answer is how (if at all) I should update based on the seemingly obvious cherry-picked example not being obvious at all.