I think it makes sense to have a loose probabilistic relationship. I do not think it makes sense for it to be a crux, in the sense of a thing which, if false, would make John abandon his view. There are just too many weak steps. The AI industry is not the AC industry. I happen to agree with John’s views about AC, but it’s not obvious to me that those views imply this particular test turning out as he’s predicting. (Is he averaging over the wrong points?) It’s more probable than not, but my point here is that the whole thing is made of fairly weak inferences.
To be clear, I am pro what John is doing and how he is engaging; it’s more John’s commentors who felt confusing to me.
I think it makes sense to have a loose probabilistic relationship. I do not think it makes sense for it to be a crux, in the sense of a thing which, if false, would make John abandon his view. There are just too many weak steps. The AI industry is not the AC industry. I happen to agree with John’s views about AC, but it’s not obvious to me that those views imply this particular test turning out as he’s predicting. (Is he averaging over the wrong points?) It’s more probable than not, but my point here is that the whole thing is made of fairly weak inferences.
To be clear, I am pro what John is doing and how he is engaging; it’s more John’s commentors who felt confusing to me.